| StockFetcher Forums · Stock Picks and Trading · Shills Swing N Daily | << 1 ... 175 176 177 178 179 ... 493 >>Post Follow-up |
| pthomas215 1,251 posts msg #129692 - Ignore pthomas215 |
7/9/2016 12:01:35 PM shillihs, I dont want to beat a dead horse but this is the most difficult time to navigate waters in my humble opinion. there are a lot of moving parts, and fundamental analysis can trump technicals often. ie bad earnings coming out even though technicals look great. FED manipulates the market. my guess is that in the short term volatility has to come back due to pressure on janet yellen and fed. if the market continually soars, there will be pressure on the fed to increase rates again. especially from the white house wanting a great legacy. increasing rates sends a positive signal to the market that things really are better. she won't do this because she knows the economy really is fragile. job growth is not what they say it is (new jobs were verizon folks coming back from a strike, under-employment is rampant, labor participation rate bad). corporate earnings are not good either. so increasing the cost of borrowing would create many more foreclosures since many folks have a floating rate. janet yellen does not want to go down as the worst fed chair in history either. If the market goes down too much, fed will receive pressure from the democrats who influence the market. Janet Yellen herself is a democrat, greenspan, most economists, warren buffet, george soros.....all democrats. they are not going to sit quietly and let the market tank on an obama watch before the biggest election in our history. and if you think this is crazy talk, think of Hillary Clinton possibly being promoted to president after exposing government secrets to other countries who want to crush and kill us. not making a political statement or anything. just facts on how everything is manipulated nowadays to fit narratives. I do think there will be an October rally given my prior points but I cant imagine it would start this early. Im betting on continued volatility... |
| shillllihs 6,090 posts msg #129693 - Ignore shillllihs modified |
7/9/2016 12:33:20 PM In an honest world, news & fundamentals make sense, but this is not. I don't believe in them, why, because they can spin them any way they want. Sometimes they will tell you something and the market will act accordingly & other times they will tell you oh that's already baked in. So basically it's 50/50. Learn how to play 1 ETF that you know in & out. Look for repeating patterns & have 4-5 indicators to get you in & out of it. I have 2 backups for my system if my No.1 indicator fails. I also think it's better to look at longer time frames as it takes time to move large sums of money around. I also think it's safer to play ETFs than a stock. Not guarenteed but I think better than relying on crooked news & manipulated fundamentals. |
| pthomas215 1,251 posts msg #129694 - Ignore pthomas215 |
7/9/2016 3:33:38 PM I like what you said. good point. I think I will focus on VXX and understand its movements. One of the things I am definitely trying to do more is have longer swing trades. it will come. I get gun shy because at least with ordinary stocks I have at times stayed in a position up 3K and the next morning it's all gone. |
| four 5,087 posts msg #129695 - Ignore four modified |
7/9/2016 4:26:01 PM
      SELL Williams when [ ppo < 0 and rsi < 60 ] BUY Williams when [ ppo > 0 AND rsi > 40 ] |
| pthomas215 1,251 posts msg #129696 - Ignore pthomas215 |
7/9/2016 5:57:36 PM four, you have been most helpful. If an etf has a williams below 99, I am assuming due to volume and the fact that it is an etf (and not a fly by night start up company stock), it has to bounce up soon? or is that a false assumption? |
| shillllihs 6,090 posts msg #129697 - Ignore shillllihs |
7/9/2016 7:12:09 PM This is what I mean by longer time frame... Maybe four can put some examples up. 1. When monthly sma2 goes above Sma21 using SH. stay out of market!!! 2. Enter BULL when SPY on the Quarterly Goes above CCI(39) -150!! 3. Exit Bull when monthly CCI(39) on SPY, dips under 0, re-enter bull when monthly CCI(39) goes back over -200!!! We are in a bull market... |
| shillllihs 6,090 posts msg #129698 - Ignore shillllihs modified |
7/9/2016 8:01:29 PM 1. When monthly sma2 goes above sma21 using SH. stay out of market!!! For this time period, which took place jan 2008 - March 2009, non of my indicators worked. The only play would be to short Xiv or Tna and that's risky. If anyone sees a way to have played during this period let me know. Mac suggested an ema sma system that was ok but if anyone finds a better play cool. |
| four 5,087 posts msg #129699 - Ignore four modified |
7/9/2016 8:26:07 PM pt, pthomas215 164 posts msg #129696 - Ignore pthomas215 7/9/2016 5:57:36 PM four, you have been most helpful. If an etf has a williams below 99, I am assuming due to volume and the fact that it is an etf (and not a fly by night start up company stock), it has to bounce up soon? or is that a false assumption? -------------------- No sarcasm. Does this chart and the comments answer your question? Indicator makes a high and price does not. Also, read about divergences...https://www.learningmarkets.com/how-to-trade-bullish-and-bearish-technical-divergences/. Also read about support and resistance with gaps... https://www.learningmarkets.com/trading-stock-and-futures-price-gaps/.  |
| pthomas215 1,251 posts msg #129700 - Ignore pthomas215 |
7/9/2016 8:33:15 PM Both you guys are great. And I get your points. Four, your chart did answer my question. Shillihs--just worried a bit about our long position in TVIX !! |
| shillllihs 6,090 posts msg #129701 - Ignore shillllihs |
7/9/2016 9:07:09 PM So am I, but it's what I want to do. You can just put a small portion or play Vxx. Or play the huge dip, if it happens knowing you are most likely in a bull trend but that's not really exciting is it. But seriously, if you choose to be conservative those parameters I showed above are pretty solid. |
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